Next up forecasts for the coming fortnight
Sun 8 Nov, 14:45 UK · World Rugby Nations Cup 2026 · Neutral venueOpen
Hong Kong ChinavUSA
28% Hong Kong ChinaDraw 2%USA 69%
Model's pick: USA by about 8
Sun 8 Nov, 15:10 UK · Nations Championship 2026Open
EnglandvAustralia
82% EnglandDraw 2%Australia 16%
Model's pick: England by about 15
Mon 9 Nov, 19:00 UK · Men's Internationals 2026Open
PakistanvUzbekistan
43% PakistanDraw 3%Uzbekistan 55%
Model's pick: Uzbekistan by about 2
Fri 13 Nov, 19:00 UK · Men's Internationals 2026Open
PakistanvUzbekistan
43% PakistanDraw 3%Uzbekistan 55%
Model's pick: Uzbekistan by about 2
Fri 13 Nov, 20:10 UK · Nations Championship 2026Open
FrancevSouth Africa
47% FranceDraw 3%South Africa 50%
Model's pick: South Africa by about 0
Sat 14 Nov, 11:40 UK · Nations Championship 2026Open
ItalyvArgentina
21% ItalyDraw 2%Argentina 77%
Model's pick: Argentina by about 12
Sat 14 Nov, 12:00 UK · Rugby Europe Trophy Men's 2027Open
MaltavSweden
63% MaltaDraw 2%Sweden 35%
Model's pick: Malta by about 6
Sat 14 Nov, 12:30 UK · Rugby Europe Trophy Men's 2027Open
GermanyvDenmark
91% GermanyDraw 1%Denmark 8%
Model's pick: Germany by about 21
Sat 14 Nov, 14:00 UK · World Rugby Nations Cup 2026 · Neutral venueOpen
Hong Kong ChinavCanada
43% Hong Kong ChinaDraw 3%Canada 55%
Model's pick: Canada by about 2
Sat 14 Nov, 14:00 UK · World Rugby Nations Cup 2026Open
GeorgiavTonga
96% GeorgiaDraw 1%Tonga 4%
Model's pick: Georgia by about 28
Sat 14 Nov, 14:10 UK · Nations Championship 2026Open
WalesvNew Zealand
3% WalesDraw 0%New Zealand 97%
Model's pick: New Zealand by about 29
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 UK · World Rugby Nations Cup 2026 · Neutral venueOpen
ZimbabwevUruguay
22% ZimbabweDraw 2%Uruguay 76%
Model's pick: Uruguay by about 12
How much to trust this: on past matches the model beats a plain home/draw/away guess by a wide margin, but it only matches World Rugby's own ranking formula, it does not beat it. Model details
No bookmaker odds are used or shown. Draws are rare, so the draw chance is always small.
Strongest teams by Rugby IQ rating
| # | Team | Rating | World Rugby |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 83.7 | #2 |
| 2 | South Africa | 79.0 | #1 |
| 3 | France | 73.0 | #4 |
| 4 | England | 70.8 | #5 |
| 5 | Ireland | 68.7 | #3 |
| 6 | Scotland | 62.9 | #6 |
| 7 | Australia | 61.4 | #7 |
| 8 | Argentina | 56.6 | #8 |
| 9 | Georgia | 53.2 | #13 |
| 10 | Japan | 49.8 | #12 |
Rating = points of expected margin against an average team. All teams